Forecasting Longevity Gains for a Population with Short Time Series Using a Structural SUTSE Model: An Application to Brazilian Annuity Plans

César Neves, Cristiano Fernandes e Álvaro Veiga

In this article, a multivariate structural time series model with common stochastic trends is proposed to forecast longevity gains of a population with a short time series of observed mortality rates, using the information of a related population for which longer mortality time series exist. The state space model proposed here makes use of the seemingly unrelated time series equation and applies the concepts of related series and common trends to construct a proper model to predict the future mortality rates of a population with little available information. This common trends approach works by assuming the two populations’ mortality rates are affected by common factors. Further, we show how this model can be used by insurers and pension funds to forecast mortality rates of policyholders and beneficiaries. We apply the proposed model to Brazilian annuity plans where life expectancies and their temporal evolution are predicted using the forecast longevity gains. Finally, to demonstrate how the model can be used in actuarial practice, the best estimate of the liabilities and the capital based on underwriting risk are estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The idiosyncratic risk effect in the process of calculating an amount of underwriting capital is also illustrated using that simulation.

Full publication:  https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10920277.2015.1061442